Congratulations to all on the article in The Space Review!
1. Satellite data analysis. This can proceed from the The Space Review article onward.
- New results on satellites: using granularity of days and months instead of years. See graph in https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11iqeXDCvUi-VIoYIys-39erPwK675HZBlm7VFhQJZAo/edit#gid=0
- What does satellites launched per year look like? VK has already done that graph, hasn't he?
- VK suggested as a measure, for each year, launches*averageLifeSpan.
- DB suggested lifespan/mass as a figure for each satellite, to be graphed as an average for each year, because cubesats may have lower mass, but lower lifespan, and still be an advance in technology. Thus lifespan alone might stop working pretty soon. (In addition to stop working due to the paradox noted below, which this fix would not solve.) We might not have mass data available for satellites, but we could do it for extraterrestrial spacecraft.
- New satellite data from planet4589. What to make of it? Maybe a new grad student could analyze it.
- Wright: 100 year lifespan after 3,424,684 satellites die. Moore: 100 year lifespan at year 2050.384. Thus Moore leads to a quandary. So we can firmly predict the end of Moore's law, which isn't bad to be able to conclude. Can we mathematically convert lifespan vs. year of death into lifespan vs. launch year? There is a time point at which lifespans are increasing at more than 1 year per year, so the average launch year reaches a maximum and starts *decreasing*. Another consideration is that exponentially increasing lifespan based on launch year makes perfect sense. The problem is that basing it on death year leads to problems. How can this be resolved mathematically?
- The problem with using launch year is the bias caused by craft that are still operating. One could improve the analysis by looking not at average lifespan but at a percentile lower than 50%. How low can we go without getting bogged down in anomalous craft (e.g. early bathtub model failures) that do not follow the trend that most craft do follow?
- An analysis is needed of lifespan trends on a per-country basis or per-organization basis.
- What if we analyze only SATCAT reentry status dates?
- Should we do another article exploring these things?
- MH suggests about investigating which countries are responsible for which satellites to see to what extent the variation in satellite lifespan might be caused by new space programs?
- Some potentially relevant background reading is at http://www.spaceworkscommercia
l.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/ 01/SpaceWorks_Spacecraft_Mass_ Trends_2014.pdf and http://www.spaceworkscommercia l.com/#services which we could discuss. - New student VB is now on board. HA is willing to consult with VB to help get C running properly.
3. New information sources:
- https://room.eu.com/about
- https://www.wired.com/2016/10/
elon-musk-treating-mars-like- moores-law-problem-not/ - https://bigthink.com/think-
tank/elon-musk-searching-for- the-moores-law-of-space - http://www.thespacereview.com/
article/3653/1 is about satellite servicing (a way to extend lifespan!) - https://www.quora.com/Why-
hasnt-Moores-law-applied-to- human-exploration-on-the-moon- 1 - https://www.networkworld.com/article/3134727/white-house-small-satellites-bring-moore-s-law-into-space.html
- https://www.reddit.com/r/
AskScienceDiscussion/comments/ 5tqml0/is_there_an_equivalent_ of_moores_law_for_space/ - HA reminded us about the article https://spectrum.ieee.org/
tech-talk/at-work/test-and- measurement/wrights-law-edges- out-moores-law-in-predicting- technology-development. This is the paper that mentions 62 different domains as data for their research. - Here's another interesting paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733315001699
- 3/8/19: HA suggested 3 articles ftom https:\\room.eu.com to discuss:
- 1. Sizing down and reaching higher with CubeSats by Jeffrey Manher & Kirk Woellert
Keywords : Moore's Law, Space ExplorationSummary: Industry revolutions, the chore of technology has started quietly. The year window between 1950 and 1960 was when space exploration depended on rockets and huge satellites. This paper explained how the miniaturization of electronics ( technology in general, referring to Moore's Law) has continued to evolve but without affecting too much space exploration that has continued to its try and succeed/fail methods through space missions. Moore's law was the center of the study.
- 2. Big or Small - aerospace innovates through constraint, link: https://room.eu.com/article/
big-or-small-aerospace- innovates-through-constraints - The ethics of Space Exploration by Guerric de Crombrugghe, link: https://room.eu.com/article/
the-ethics-of-space- exploration
4. RS: https://www.hendrix.edu/aas2019. March 1 due date for abstract, registration, dues. JAAS submissions due March 27, 2019. The annual meeting this year is at Hendrix College in Conway, F-Sa March 29-30, 2019. MH is interested in taking the lead on this. There are other deadlines (some sooner). See:
Discussions about the below are postponed for now.
- AAS: http://www.arkansasacademyofscience.org/
- Newsletters: http://www.arkansasacademyofscience.org/aasnewsletter.html
- Deadlines in: http://www.arkansasacademyofscience.org/AASnews2019.pdf
Discussions about the below are postponed for now.
- A possible IEEE Aerospace Conference 2020 track (DB). It's far away (Montana in 2019) so travel is an issue in addition to delay.
- Annual ASGC Symposium track. May be 3rd Friday in April at Winthrop Rockefeller Institute. A good opportunity for a student to present a poster. MH is interested and will likely have some results in time to do it.
- NEO/NEA analysis track. More analyses later.
- A paper on using minitab to curve fit and envelope various data columns. RS could do that at some point.
