5/1/20: Status, readings, and the forecasting community

Agenda & Minutes

1. Move to new conferencing system. We decided tentatively to try Zoom. DB will email a link ahead of time.

2. Status reports. PT's MS proposal document. VJB's graphs.

3. Discuss PT's proposal document. Some references are not cited. Title needs to use term "data mining" not "mine data." PT will fix and redistribute.

4. VJB has a preliminary graph:

Q: why no 1000+ data after 2005?

Q: The low trough at about 0.2 is really 0, so that needs to be fixed. Also the second trough in the blue curve is not right.

DB asked for a new curve combining all lifespan intervals *except* 0-10 days.

DB pointed out that the figure should state the satellite status condition (Reentered, In Earth orbit, or other)

5. DB plans to add more problems to the "Strain Your Brain" items soon.

6. We did not get to dtart discussing this on satellite lifespans but maybe next time.

7. We did not check out the International Journal of Forecasting but maybe next time.

8. We did not check out Lancaster Centre for Forecasting but maybe next time.

9. We may in the future discuss this on distributional forecasts. Should we find a MS student to apply this method to space exploration?

10. VJB plans to update us on data sources and readings regularly starting soon.

4/24/20: Statuses and readings

Agenda & Minutes

1. Status reports. PT is getting ready to distribute his MS proposal document. VJB is developing more satellite lifespan graphs for various subsets of his data set, which will be included in his proposal as preliminary work and eventually in his dissertation later.

2. DB plans to add more problems to the "Strain Your Brain" items soon.

3. We finished discussing the Funk and Magee 2017 paper on technological improvement prior to commercial production, reading sections 5 and 7, and decided to go on to another paper starting next time.

4. Next time we will start discussing this on satellite lifespans.

5. We may in the future discuss this on distributional forecasts. Should we find a MS student to apply this method to space exploration?

6. VJB plans to update us on data sources and readings regularly starting soon.

4/17/2020: Readings and updates

Agenda & Minutes

1. Status reports. PT is getting ready to distribute his MS proposal document. VJB is developing more satellite lifespan graphs for various subsets of his data set, which will be included in his proposal as preliminary work and eventually in his dissertation later.

2. DB plans to add more problems to the "Strain Your Brain" items soon.

3. We may continue to discuss this. We read about solar cells, starting halfway down on p. 14 with the paragraph starting "The third entry in Table 2 is organic solar cells." We also discussed Figure 1c and also discussed all of p. 15.

4. We may in the future discuss this on satellite lifespans.

5. We may in the future discuss this on distributional forecasts. Should we find a MS student to apply this method to space exploration?

6. VJB plans to update us on data sources and readings regularly starting soon.

4/10/2020: Statuses and thoughts on new readings

Agenda & Minutes

1. Status reports.

2. We can discuss the "Strain Your Brain" items as desired.

3. We may continue to discuss this. We read table 2 and results par. 1 most recently so next is paragraph 2 (starts near top of p. 12). We decided that next time we will read about solar cells, the discussion of which starts halfway down on p. 14 with a paragraph starting "The third entry in Table 2 is organic solar cells."

4. We may also discuss this on satellite lifespans.

5. We may also discuss this on distributional forecasts. Should we find a MS student to apply this method to space exploration?

6. VJB plans to update us on data sources and readings regularly starting soon.

7. Next time we will also discuss in general how life and science will be changed by the current pandemic period.

4/3/20: Readings and statuses

Agenda & Minutes

1. PT status. Working on MSIS proposal, finished intro and review of web technologies. Finished coding of JS for his web application. 

2. VJB status. Candidacy exams: has one done, scheduled another for next Thursday, and the 3rd still trying to get the examiner scheduled. Plans to update us on data sources and readings regularly starting soon.

3. WMSCI paper update. Conference could end up being cancelled, delayed, and/or held online.

4. We are skipping around in our paper Moore’s Law and Space Exploration: New Insights and Next Steps. Last time we read the second paragraph in section "The Moore’s law conundrums." This time we will read the first sentence after eq. (2). Then read the 1st paragraph after eq. (7).
5. We may continue to discuss this. We read table 2 and results par. 1 most recently so next is paragraph 2 (starts near top of p. 12).