Agenda
- Discuss Goddard 1981. A few questions include:
- He wants to predict growth in dollar sales over time.
- Claims linear increase is rarely noticeable.
- Claims S curves have little justification as they are found mostly in biology.
- Claims exponentials don't apply ("The punch line...") but actually doesn't support that claim at all!
- Then goes on to fit exponentials, concluding that they don't work because growth increases faster early on, then increases at a slowing rate as time goes on.
- Claims p. 224 that there is no stochastic random walk - rather perturbations return to the trendline.
- Eq. 2: Why the 1/q term?
- Last section: applies to functional classes of products; applies best to first "five to ten years" of a new kind of product. That suggests it doesn't apply so well after that.
- Claims that very long term, product manufacturing growth is limited by growth in human population. I don't agree: (1) productivity growth and consumption growth per capita, and (2) AI singularity.
- Report: MH
- Report: VB
- Volunteers for updating us next time on latest exploration news?
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