3/12/21: The PT paper "review", etc.

Agenda and Minutes 

1. Updates and plans. We concluded discussion of the review of PT's paper:

From: Advances in Space Research, em@editorialmanager.com
Subject: Your Submission - Manuscript Number AISR-D-21-00150
Section: ST -Space Technology, Policy & Education
Article Title: Deep space exploration: spacecraft lifespan trend modeling based on time and budget
   I have read your paper and consulted other editors. The paper is curious and well written, however it does not include Space research. Furthermore, the methodology is disputable. The NASA budget is not all allocated to deep space exploration, even less to technologies for deep exploration. Furthermore, NASA is not the only source for development of space technologies. Defence also spends significantly in technology. The use of spacecraft lifespan as proxy for progress is not evident. Mission to the outer planets require significant time just to reach the target. Rover missions on Mars have shorter lifespans but may require significantly higher funding.
   I regret to inform you that I have to regret the paper. Thank you for giving us the opportunity to consider your work.
Yours sincerely,
Alberto Tobias
Associate Editor

It seems that "deep space" is a vaguely defined term and we should define what we mean by it in the paper. We could also mention other agency's budgets (defense, other countries...) in a brief mention of limitations of using the NASA budget. But a lot about this "review" is simply uninformed, and this journal is just not interested in the topic.

2. Background literature update (VJB): 

Revisiting: Technological Forecasting – A Review, by Ayse Kaya Firat, Wei Lee Woon, & Stuart Madnick, MIT Working Paper CISL# 2008-15 September 2008, http://web.mit.edu/smadnick/www/wp/2008-15.pdf.

- Conclude on the question of how many more recent survey papers cite this paper? Check using scholar.google.com, as explained at https://youtu.be/G9Vh_L1sAV4:

The selection of technology forecasting method using a multi-criteria interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy group decision making approach G Intepe, E Bozdag, T Koc - Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2013 - Elsevier Technological forecasting is a tool for organizations to develop their technology strategies. The quality of forecasting is extremely important for the accuracy of the results and in turn company future. Therefore a proper selection methodology of forecasting technique that …   Cited by 67 Related articles All 5 versions Web of Science: 40

A review on technology forecasting methods and their application area D Kang, W Jang, H Lee, HJ No - International Journal of …, 2013 - publications.waset.org Technology changes have been acknowledged as a critical factor in determining competitiveness of organization. Under such environment, the right anticipation of technology change has been of huge importance in strategic planning. To monitor …   Cited by 13 Related articles All 2 versions 

Technology forecasting (TF) and technology assessment (TA) methodologies: a conceptual review A Haleem, B Mannan, S Luthra, S Kumar… - … An International Journal, 2019 - emerald.com Purpose Technology forecasting (TF) and assessment (TA), all in all, apply to any intentional and deliberate endeavours to forecast and view the potential heading, rate, attributes and impacts of technological change, especially for development, advancement, selection and …   Cited by 12 Related articles Web of Science: 5

Technology forecasting methods with emphasis on bibliographic analysis and curve fitting: a photocatalytic case example P Jaranyagorn, C Chansa Ngavej - Advanced Materials Research, 2012 - Trans Tech Publ Technology forecasting methods can be applied to make sure we know the potential direction, characteristic, state and effect of technology change. A good forecast can maximize gain and minimize loss from future conditions Nowadays, many companies invest …   Cited by 1 Related articles All 3 versions

Forecasting technology obsolescence: Assessing the existing literature, a systematic review AJ Parvin Jr - … of the International Annual Conference of the …, 2017 - search.proquest.com The purpose of this paper is: to provide a systematic review of the existing literature on the topic area of forecasting technology obsolescence and to provide guidelines and recommendations for future research. All business and government organizations that can …   Cited by 3 Related articles

Technological forecasting related to the energy sector: a scientometric overview AV Mikheev - E3S Web of Conferences, 2020 - e3s-conferences.org Scientometric review of trends and key points of technological forecasting related to the energy sector is carried out in this study. Using co-keyword, co-citation techniques to analyze a set of research and review articles indexed in the Scopus database, clustered …   Related articles All 2 versions 

Technology Forecasting: Recent Trends and New Methods G Calleja-Sanz, J Olivella-Nadal… - Research Methodology in …, 2020 - Springer Because of the big and increasing importance of technology, the analysis and forecasting of technology trends and futures are more and more important. Although precise predictions are not possible, technology forecasting provides useful insights that are badly needed. The …   Related articles All 3 versions

Technology Forecasting & its uses in planning R&D projects D Gupta, HK Gupta - academia.edu Technology management deals with the technology and the management. The word 'technology'has a wider connotation and refers to the collection of production possibilities, techniques, methods and processes by which resources are actually transformed by …   Related articles 

For general reference here are some generic questions about articles:

       a. What is the source? 
       b. What is the most significant advance in the human knowledge presented in the paper? 
       c. Why is that advance important? 
       d. What important questions arise from the paper for future research? 
       e. What important questions would it be nice if the paper answered, but does not answer? 
       f. What does the paper present that is novel (no one else has provided that before)? 
       g. What is the relevance of the paper to our satellite research goals? 
       h. Questions from the group? 

3. Reading and discussion: 

    a. For the Magee et al. 2016 reading, we finished up to the last par. of section 5 on p. 245. Next time we will start there so we can finish up this paper and start on the one on the queue (c. below).

    b. For the Reynolds and Szerszynski reading, we finished up through the 2nd sentence, last par., p. 11.

    c. Our next paper will be Hu et al. 2015, A survey on life prediction of equipment.

    d. We found that the paper at https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-40896-1_3 seems like a good paper for us to read.